VIL vs OSA
Villarreal (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 59.8% fair 1.67
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
OSA win 19.1% fair 5.22
Expected Goals
VIL
2.05
—
1.01
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-1 OSA | 10.0% | |
| VIL 2-0 OSA | 9.8% | |
| VIL 1-1 OSA | 9.7% | |
| VIL 1-0 OSA | 9.6% | |
| VIL 3-1 OSA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).