VAL vs ELC
Valencia (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 38.0% fair 2.63
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
ELC win 36.6% fair 2.73
Expected Goals
VAL
1.38
—
1.38
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 ELC | 12.0% | |
| VAL 0-1 ELC | 8.8% | |
| VAL 1-0 ELC | 8.7% | |
| VAL 1-2 ELC | 8.3% | |
| VAL 2-1 ELC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).