Gameweek 38
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 00:00 | ATH vs RAY | 45.8% | 25.6% | 28.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | BET vs ATM | 37.0% | 25.0% | 38.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | ELC vs RAC | 56.2% | 21.0% | 22.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | ESP vs ALA | 40.6% | 26.4% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | GET vs FCB | 13.8% | 17.5% | 68.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | LEV vs CEL | 36.0% | 25.6% | 38.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | MLG vs SEV | 31.8% | 24.3% | 43.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | OSA vs VAL | 43.1% | 26.0% | 30.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | RMA vs DEP | 72.8% | 15.6% | 11.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 05-30 00:00 | RSO vs VIL | 36.4% | 22.2% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.