ESP vs ALA
Espanyol (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 40.6% fair 2.46
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
ALA win 33.0% fair 3.03
Expected Goals
ESP
1.34
—
1.20
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 ALA | 12.7% | |
| ESP 1-0 ALA | 10.6% | |
| ESP 0-1 ALA | 9.4% | |
| ESP 2-1 ALA | 8.5% | |
| ESP 0-0 ALA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).