MLG vs SEV
Málaga (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 31.8% fair 3.15
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
SEV win 43.9% fair 2.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.3% / 24.3% / 46.4%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.25
—
1.64
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 SEV | 11.4% | |
| MLG 1-2 SEV | 9.3% | |
| MLG 0-1 SEV | 9.1% | |
| MLG 0-2 SEV | 7.4% | |
| MLG 2-1 SEV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).