RSO vs VIL
Real Sociedad (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 36.4% fair 2.74
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
VIL win 41.4% fair 2.42
Expected Goals
RSO
1.69
—
1.87
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.22 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 VIL | 9.0% | |
| RSO 1-2 VIL | 8.4% | |
| RSO 2-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| RSO 2-2 VIL | 7.1% | |
| RSO 0-1 VIL | 5.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).