RMA vs DEP
Real Madrid (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 72.8% fair 1.37
Draw 15.6% fair 6.39
DEP win 11.5% fair 8.68
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 76.7% / 14.4% / 8.8%.
Expected Goals
RMA
2.65
—
0.80
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | fair 3.02 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 DEP | 11.2% | |
| RMA 3-0 DEP | 9.9% | |
| RMA 2-1 DEP | 8.9% | |
| RMA 1-0 DEP | 8.5% | |
| RMA 3-1 DEP | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).