ATH vs RAY
Athletic Club (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 45.8% fair 2.18
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
RAY win 28.6% fair 3.49
Expected Goals
ATH
1.49
—
1.12
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 RAY | 12.3% | |
| ATH 1-0 RAY | 10.9% | |
| ATH 2-1 RAY | 9.2% | |
| ATH 0-1 RAY | 8.2% | |
| ATH 2-0 RAY | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).