ELC vs RAC
Elche (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 56.2% fair 1.78
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
RAC win 22.8% fair 4.39
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.0% / 20.4% / 21.6%.
Expected Goals
ELC
2.15
—
1.25
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.9% | fair 2.95 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 2-1 RAC | 9.6% | |
| ELC 1-1 RAC | 8.9% | |
| ELC 2-0 RAC | 7.7% | |
| ELC 1-0 RAC | 7.1% | |
| ELC 3-1 RAC | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).