LEV vs CEL
Levante (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 36.0% fair 2.78
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
CEL win 38.4% fair 2.60
Expected Goals
LEV
1.30
—
1.40
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 CEL | 12.2% | |
| LEV 0-1 CEL | 9.4% | |
| LEV 1-0 CEL | 8.7% | |
| LEV 1-2 CEL | 8.6% | |
| LEV 2-1 CEL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).