OSA vs VAL
Osasuna (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 43.1% fair 2.32
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
VAL win 30.9% fair 3.23
Expected Goals
OSA
1.42
—
1.17
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 VAL | 12.5% | |
| OSA 1-0 VAL | 10.6% | |
| OSA 2-1 VAL | 8.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 VAL | 8.8% | |
| OSA 2-0 VAL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).