ALA vs RMA
Alavés (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 21.2% fair 4.71
Draw 21.6% fair 4.64
RMA win 57.2% fair 1.75
Expected Goals
ALA
1.02
—
1.99
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.1% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 RMA | 10.0% | |
| ALA 1-2 RMA | 10.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 RMA | 9.8% | |
| ALA 0-2 RMA | 9.8% | |
| ALA 1-3 RMA | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).