RAC vs LEV
Racing Santander (home) vs Levante · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
LEV win 39.9% fair 2.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.9% / 22.6% / 41.5%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.64
—
1.77
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 LEV | 9.6% | |
| RAC 1-2 LEV | 8.5% | |
| RAC 2-1 LEV | 7.9% | |
| RAC 2-2 LEV | 7.0% | |
| RAC 0-1 LEV | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).