ATM vs ATH
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 58.1% fair 1.72
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
ATH win 19.4% fair 5.15
Expected Goals
ATM
1.87
—
0.93
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 ATH | 11.4% | |
| ATM 2-0 ATH | 10.7% | |
| ATM 1-1 ATH | 10.6% | |
| ATM 2-1 ATH | 9.9% | |
| ATM 3-0 ATH | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).