DEP vs ESP
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
ESP win 33.6% fair 2.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.4% / 26.4% / 34.2%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.35
—
1.24
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ESP | 12.6% | |
| DEP 1-0 ESP | 10.1% | |
| DEP 0-1 ESP | 9.3% | |
| DEP 2-1 ESP | 8.5% | |
| DEP 1-2 ESP | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).