CEL vs RSO
Celta Vigo (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 47.1% fair 2.13
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
RSO win 29.3% fair 3.42
Expected Goals
CEL
1.72
—
1.30
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 RSO | 10.9% | |
| CEL 2-1 RSO | 9.4% | |
| CEL 1-0 RSO | 8.4% | |
| CEL 2-0 RSO | 7.2% | |
| CEL 1-2 RSO | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).