FCB vs MLG
Barcelona (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 85.6% fair 1.17
Draw 8.2% fair 12.21
MLG win 6.2% fair 16.05
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 91.3% / 5.9% / 2.8%.
Expected Goals
FCB
4.06
—
0.73
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 85.6% | fair 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 14.4% | fair 6.94 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 4-0 MLG | 9.4% | |
| FCB 3-0 MLG | 9.3% | |
| FCB 5-0 MLG | 7.6% | |
| FCB 4-1 MLG | 6.9% | |
| FCB 2-0 MLG | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 18.3 | 13.4 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).