RMA vs RAC
Real Madrid (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 78.8% fair 1.27
Draw 12.0% fair 8.31
RAC win 9.1% fair 10.94
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 83.6% / 10.3% / 6.1%.
Expected Goals
RMA
3.30
—
0.86
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.5% | fair 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 21.5% | fair 4.64 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 3-0 RAC | 9.4% | |
| RMA 2-0 RAC | 8.5% | |
| RMA 3-1 RAC | 8.0% | |
| RMA 4-0 RAC | 7.7% | |
| RMA 2-1 RAC | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).