DEP vs ALA
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 38.5% fair 2.60
Draw 26.0% fair 3.85
ALA win 35.5% fair 2.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.3% / 26.3% / 36.4%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.32
—
1.30
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 ALA | 12.5% | |
| DEP 1-0 ALA | 9.6% | |
| DEP 0-1 ALA | 9.5% | |
| DEP 2-1 ALA | 8.2% | |
| DEP 1-2 ALA | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).