RSO vs FCB
Real Sociedad (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 16.2% fair 6.16
Draw 14.9% fair 6.73
FCB win 68.9% fair 1.45
Expected Goals
RSO
1.40
—
3.18
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 83.6% | fair 1.20 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 16.4% | fair 6.08 |
| Both teams to score | 72.2% | fair 1.38 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-3 FCB | 7.7% | |
| RSO 1-2 FCB | 7.3% | |
| RSO 1-4 FCB | 6.1% | |
| RSO 0-3 FCB | 5.5% | |
| RSO 2-3 FCB | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 5.3 |
| 1 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 5.2 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).