ELC vs ATH
Elche (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 43.4% fair 2.30
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
ATH win 31.5% fair 3.17
Expected Goals
ELC
1.51
—
1.26
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 ATH | 11.9% | |
| ELC 1-0 ATH | 9.4% | |
| ELC 2-1 ATH | 9.0% | |
| ELC 0-1 ATH | 7.9% | |
| ELC 1-2 ATH | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).