ESP vs VAL
Espanyol (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 26.1% fair 3.84
VAL win 29.3% fair 3.41
Expected Goals
ESP
1.43
—
1.11
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 VAL | 12.5% | |
| ESP 1-0 VAL | 11.3% | |
| ESP 2-1 VAL | 9.0% | |
| ESP 0-1 VAL | 8.7% | |
| ESP 2-0 VAL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).