MLG vs CEL
Málaga (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 27.5% fair 3.63
Draw 25.6% fair 3.91
CEL win 46.9% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.4% / 25.8% / 49.8%.
Expected Goals
MLG
0.98
—
1.52
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 0-1 CEL | 12.5% | |
| MLG 1-1 CEL | 12.2% | |
| MLG 0-2 CEL | 9.5% | |
| MLG 1-2 CEL | 9.3% | |
| MLG 0-0 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).