ATM vs RAY
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 61.6% fair 1.62
Draw 21.1% fair 4.75
RAY win 17.3% fair 5.77
Expected Goals
ATM
2.01
—
0.90
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 RAY | 11.0% | |
| ATM 1-0 RAY | 11.0% | |
| ATM 2-1 RAY | 9.9% | |
| ATM 1-1 RAY | 9.9% | |
| ATM 3-0 RAY | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).