SEV vs VIL
Sevilla (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 33.7% fair 2.97
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
VIL win 42.8% fair 2.33
Expected Goals
SEV
1.43
—
1.71
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | fair 2.55 |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 VIL | 10.6% | |
| SEV 1-2 VIL | 9.0% | |
| SEV 2-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| SEV 0-1 VIL | 7.4% | |
| SEV 2-2 VIL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).