RAY vs DEP
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 46.2% fair 2.16
Draw 25.2% fair 3.98
DEP win 28.6% fair 3.49
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.3% / 25.3% / 28.4%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.54
—
1.15
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 DEP | 12.0% | |
| RAY 1-0 DEP | 10.5% | |
| RAY 2-1 DEP | 9.2% | |
| RAY 2-0 DEP | 8.1% | |
| RAY 0-1 DEP | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).