VAL vs ATM
Valencia (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 24.6% fair 4.07
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
ATM win 51.5% fair 1.94
Expected Goals
VAL
1.01
—
1.71
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 ATM | 11.4% | |
| VAL 0-1 ATM | 11.2% | |
| VAL 1-2 ATM | 9.7% | |
| VAL 0-2 ATM | 9.6% | |
| VAL 1-0 ATM | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).