OSA vs RSO
Osasuna (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 37.4% fair 2.67
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
RSO win 39.2% fair 2.55
Expected Goals
OSA
1.57
—
1.66
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 RSO | 10.3% | |
| OSA 1-2 RSO | 8.6% | |
| OSA 2-1 RSO | 8.1% | |
| OSA 2-2 RSO | 6.7% | |
| OSA 0-1 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).