VIL vs CEL
Villarreal (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 48.7% fair 2.06
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
CEL win 26.6% fair 3.76
Expected Goals
VIL
1.61
—
1.11
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 CEL | 11.8% | |
| VIL 1-0 CEL | 10.6% | |
| VIL 2-1 CEL | 9.5% | |
| VIL 2-0 CEL | 8.5% | |
| VIL 0-1 CEL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).