ATH vs MLG
Athletic Club (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 55.8% fair 1.79
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
MLG win 21.0% fair 4.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.5% / 23.1% / 19.5%.
Expected Goals
ATH
1.79
—
0.94
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-0 MLG | 11.7% | |
| ATH 1-1 MLG | 11.0% | |
| ATH 2-0 MLG | 10.5% | |
| ATH 2-1 MLG | 9.8% | |
| ATH 0-0 MLG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).