CEL vs SEV
Celta Vigo (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
SEV win 27.1% fair 3.69
Expected Goals
CEL
1.57
—
1.11
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 SEV | 11.9% | |
| CEL 1-0 SEV | 10.8% | |
| CEL 2-1 SEV | 9.4% | |
| CEL 2-0 SEV | 8.5% | |
| CEL 0-1 SEV | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).