FCB vs OSA
Barcelona (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 82.4% fair 1.21
Draw 10.3% fair 9.67
OSA win 7.3% fair 13.79
Expected Goals
FCB
3.50
—
0.84
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.8% | fair 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.2% | fair 5.20 |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 OSA | 9.3% | |
| FCB 4-0 OSA | 8.1% | |
| FCB 2-0 OSA | 8.0% | |
| FCB 3-1 OSA | 7.8% | |
| FCB 4-1 OSA | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 11.8 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).