LEV vs RMA
Levante (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 19.8% fair 5.05
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
RMA win 60.8% fair 1.65
Expected Goals
LEV
1.12
—
2.30
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.7% | fair 2.97 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-2 RMA | 9.7% | |
| LEV 0-2 RMA | 8.7% | |
| LEV 1-1 RMA | 8.4% | |
| LEV 0-1 RMA | 7.6% | |
| LEV 1-3 RMA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).