MLG vs GET
Málaga (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 34.6% fair 2.89
Draw 28.9% fair 3.46
GET win 36.5% fair 2.74
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.7% / 29.7% / 37.6%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.01
—
1.11
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 GET | 13.5% | |
| MLG 0-1 GET | 13.3% | |
| MLG 1-0 GET | 12.1% | |
| MLG 0-0 GET | 12.0% | |
| MLG 1-2 GET | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).