RSO vs ATH
Real Sociedad (home) vs Athletic Club · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 46.7% fair 2.14
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
ATH win 30.2% fair 3.31
Expected Goals
RSO
1.79
—
1.41
ATH
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 ATH | 10.3% | |
| RSO 2-1 ATH | 9.2% | |
| RSO 1-0 ATH | 7.3% | |
| RSO 1-2 ATH | 7.2% | |
| RSO 2-0 ATH | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: ATH goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).