ATM vs ALA
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 59.6% fair 1.68
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
ALA win 18.5% fair 5.41
Expected Goals
ATM
1.92
—
0.91
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.1% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-0 ALA | 11.3% | |
| ATM 2-0 ALA | 10.9% | |
| ATM 1-1 ALA | 10.3% | |
| ATM 2-1 ALA | 9.9% | |
| ATM 3-0 ALA | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).