ELC vs ESP
Elche (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
ESP win 28.5% fair 3.51
Expected Goals
ELC
1.60
—
1.19
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 ESP | 11.7% | |
| ELC 1-0 ESP | 9.9% | |
| ELC 2-1 ESP | 9.4% | |
| ELC 2-0 ESP | 7.9% | |
| ELC 0-1 ESP | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).