DEP vs RAC
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 69% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 48.9% fair 2.05
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
RAC win 28.0% fair 3.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.5% / 22.9% / 27.6%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.82
—
1.31
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 RAC | 10.4% | |
| DEP 2-1 RAC | 9.5% | |
| DEP 1-0 RAC | 8.0% | |
| DEP 2-0 RAC | 7.2% | |
| DEP 1-2 RAC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).