RAY vs VIL
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 31.0% fair 3.23
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
VIL win 44.8% fair 2.23
Expected Goals
RAY
1.27
—
1.65
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 VIL | 11.3% | |
| RAY 1-2 VIL | 9.3% | |
| RAY 0-1 VIL | 8.9% | |
| RAY 0-2 VIL | 7.4% | |
| RAY 2-1 VIL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).