CEL vs FCB
Celta Vigo (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 19.4% fair 5.15
Draw 19.4% fair 5.15
FCB win 61.2% fair 1.63
Expected Goals
CEL
1.10
—
2.29
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.92 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-2 FCB | 9.7% | |
| CEL 0-2 FCB | 8.8% | |
| CEL 1-1 FCB | 8.5% | |
| CEL 0-1 FCB | 7.7% | |
| CEL 1-3 FCB | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).