ATM vs SEV
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Sevilla · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 60.3% fair 1.66
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
SEV win 18.8% fair 5.31
Expected Goals
ATM
2.08
—
1.02
SEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-1 SEV | 9.9% | |
| ATM 2-0 SEV | 9.8% | |
| ATM 1-1 SEV | 9.6% | |
| ATM 1-0 SEV | 9.4% | |
| ATM 3-1 SEV | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: SEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).