MLG vs VAL
Málaga (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 35.7% fair 2.80
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
VAL win 38.2% fair 2.62
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.0% / 26.4% / 39.7%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.24
—
1.36
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 VAL | 12.5% | |
| MLG 0-1 VAL | 10.1% | |
| MLG 1-0 VAL | 9.2% | |
| MLG 1-2 VAL | 8.5% | |
| MLG 2-1 VAL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).