FCB vs ESP
Barcelona (home) vs Espanyol · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 80.7% fair 1.24
Draw 11.3% fair 8.84
ESP win 8.0% fair 12.55
Expected Goals
FCB
3.32
—
0.85
ESP
| Over 2.5 goals | 78.5% | fair 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 21.5% | fair 4.66 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 ESP | 9.4% | |
| FCB 2-0 ESP | 8.5% | |
| FCB 3-1 ESP | 8.0% | |
| FCB 4-0 ESP | 7.8% | |
| FCB 2-1 ESP | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: ESP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).