LEV vs VIL
Levante (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 31.4% fair 3.19
Draw 22.9% fair 4.37
VIL win 45.7% fair 2.19
Expected Goals
LEV
1.41
—
1.83
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 VIL | 10.1% | |
| LEV 1-2 VIL | 9.3% | |
| LEV 0-1 VIL | 7.2% | |
| LEV 2-1 VIL | 7.1% | |
| LEV 0-2 VIL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).