ELC vs OSA
Elche (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ELC win 48.9% fair 2.05
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
OSA win 27.0% fair 3.70
Expected Goals
ELC
1.68
—
1.18
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ELC 1-1 OSA | 11.3% | |
| ELC 1-0 OSA | 9.6% | |
| ELC 2-1 OSA | 9.5% | |
| ELC 2-0 OSA | 8.1% | |
| ELC 0-1 OSA | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ELC goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).