ALA vs RAY
Alavés (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 25.7% fair 3.89
RAY win 29.8% fair 3.36
Expected Goals
ALA
1.47
—
1.15
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 RAY | 12.3% | |
| ALA 1-0 RAY | 10.7% | |
| ALA 2-1 RAY | 9.0% | |
| ALA 0-1 RAY | 8.4% | |
| ALA 2-0 RAY | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).