DEP vs CEL
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 33.1% fair 3.02
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
CEL win 40.3% fair 2.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.0% / 27.0% / 41.9%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.12
—
1.34
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 CEL | 12.8% | |
| DEP 0-1 CEL | 11.5% | |
| DEP 1-0 CEL | 9.5% | |
| DEP 1-2 CEL | 8.6% | |
| DEP 0-0 CEL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).