OSA vs RMA
Osasuna (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 18.6% fair 5.39
Draw 20.0% fair 4.99
RMA win 61.4% fair 1.63
Expected Goals
OSA
0.97
—
2.15
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.3% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.7% | fair 2.52 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 0-2 RMA | 10.2% | |
| OSA 1-2 RMA | 9.9% | |
| OSA 0-1 RMA | 9.5% | |
| OSA 1-1 RMA | 9.2% | |
| OSA 0-3 RMA | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).