RAY vs RSO
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 23.3% fair 4.29
RSO win 37.0% fair 2.70
Expected Goals
RAY
1.64
—
1.61
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.9% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.1% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 RSO | 10.3% | |
| RAY 2-1 RSO | 8.4% | |
| RAY 1-2 RSO | 8.3% | |
| RAY 2-2 RSO | 6.7% | |
| RAY 1-0 RSO | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).