ATM vs LEV
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Levante · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 63.2% fair 1.58
Draw 19.6% fair 5.09
LEV win 17.1% fair 5.84
Expected Goals
ATM
2.22
—
1.00
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.4% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.6% | fair 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 LEV | 9.9% | |
| ATM 2-1 LEV | 9.8% | |
| ATM 1-0 LEV | 8.9% | |
| ATM 1-1 LEV | 8.9% | |
| ATM 3-0 LEV | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).